This article is part of our ADCC 2024 coverage. To get live results, play by play, and commentary, we’ll have a live updates article running all weekend.
ADCC 2024 is scheduled for August 17th and 18th, 2024 and we’ve put together a full preview of the men’s under 99kg division. The full competitor list for all 5 men’s divisions and all 3 women’s divisions can be found here, but this article will be breaking down the individual chances of each competitor in this weight class. Every single grappler in the lineup is at the very top of the sport and any one of them could win, although some do have better chances than others on paper. ADCC is the world’s most prestigious no gi grappling tournament, so every competitor will be giving it everything they’ve got for the biggest title in the sport.
Before seeing our full preview of the men’s under 99kg division at ADCC 2024, take a look at the full play-by-play of the last edition here.
ADCC 2024: Men’s Under 99kg Division Full Preview
There are 16 elite competitors in the ADCC 2024 men’s under 99kg division, so this preview will split them into groups of 4 judging by how good their chances are of winning the tournament. The favorites, as the name suggests, are the 4 most likely to win the tournament and will probably end up as the semi-finalists depending on the draw. The contenders are the 4 who are most likely to make it to the quarter-finals and although they aren’t favorites, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them go further. The dark horses and underdogs are the 8 who will most likely go out in the opening round, but the dark horses have the best chance of causing an upset and making a run in the bracket.
Favorites
Nicholas Meregali
Nicholas Meregali has been one of the best gi competitors in the world for several years now, and his transition to no gi back in 2022 proved to be just as successful. He made his debut at ADCC 2022 and was very successful, winning a silver medal in the absolute and a bronze medal in this weight class. Neither of the men he lost to are in this bracket and he’s beaten two of the more likely winners in solid performances last year, so Meregali is likely to improve upon his past results this time around.
Kaynan Duarte
Kaynan Duarte is the reigning champion at this weight and he even won the over 99kg division back in 2019 as well. Only one of the men he beat in either of those runs is competing in this bracket but he’s faced almost half the men in this bracket before. He has a total record of 9-5 against his potential opponents here but most of his losses have come to Meregali, including their most recent match together at WNO 19. Meregali will be Duarte’s biggest opposition on the way to leaving with his third consecutive title, but he’s also lost his last two superfights and may get caught by someone else too.
Vinicius ‘Trator’ Ferreira
Vinicius ‘Trator’ Ferreira is one of the other men who has beaten reigning champion Duarte in the past, although he’s gone 1-3 in the series of matches they have had. Ferreira is also another former medalist, as he won a silver medal at this weight in 2019 and his only loss then came to Gordon Ryan. Ferreira went out in the second round in 2022 though and he’s had some difficulty reaching the podium this year, going out in the quarter-finals of both the IBJJF World Championship and ADCC Trials. He definitely has the skill to win this division, but it remains to be seen if he will have to put it all together on the day.
Henrique ‘Ceconi’ Cardoso
Henrique ‘Ceconi’ Cardoso had a very tough draw in the opening round of ADCC 2022, as he ended up losing to Meregali. He had to go back to the drawing board after that and earn the right to return by winning the Second ADCC South American Trials this year, and he looked fantastic in doing so. He beat two of his potential opponents here along the way to that gold medal and he beat one of the top contenders at ADXC 3 just a week before that, so he’s primed for a good run in this division.
Contenders
Roberto ‘Cyborg’ Abreu
Roberto ‘Cyborg’ Abreu has been at the top of the no gi competition world for over a decade now, winning an ADCC title and six IBJJF No Gi World Championship titles. His most recent ADCC appearance in 2022 didn’t go so well though, as he went out in the opening round of his weight class. Abreu did come back to finish fourth in the absolute and later won the IBJJF No Gi World Championship that same year, so he’s definitely still in contention here. He’s faced two of the favorites in the last few years and lost to both of them though, so Abreu might find it really challenging in the later rounds.
Rafael Lovato Jr
Like Abreu, Rafael Lovato Jr made his ADCC debut well over a decade ago and is still able to hang at the highest level of the sport. He turned back the clock at ADCC 2022 and put on a fantastic performance to finish fourth in this weight class, facing three of this year’s favorites in the process. He beat Ferreira and lost to Meregali and Duarte on the thinnest of margins, by decision and a single penalty respectively. Lovato Jr has the technical level to beat anyone in this bracket but just like Abreu, he will find his biggest challenges in the later rounds.
Javier Zaruski
Javier Zaruski is making his debut at ADCC 2024 but he’s a solid contender in this preview of the under 99kg division thanks to his performance at the IBJJF No Gi World Championship last year. He won the super-heavyweight division and shocked the crowd by submitting Ferreira in the final. Zaruski couldn’t replicate that success at ADCC Trials this year and went out in the quarter-finals, although his loss was only on penalties. Ferreira is the only man in this bracket that he’s faced before though, so it’ll be interesting to see how he’ll cope with some of the favorites.
Paul Ardila
Paul Ardila is one of the most successful ADCC Trials competitors in the history of the sport, and his win at the East Coast Trials last year marked the fourth time he has won the tournament. This will be his fifth appearance at ADCC and although he’s gone out in the opening round every time, this may just be his moment. He’s submitted three of his potential opponents in recent years and although Ferreira holds two wins over him, both were due to penalty points. With a more favorable draw Ardila could go very far but he’s going to be a threat no matter who he faces.
Dark Horses
Patrick Gaudio
Patrick Gaudio is another experienced ADCC competitor and this will now be the third consecutive time he has been at the world championship. His total ADCC record is 2-3 and he has experience competing against the favorites in this bracket at other events too, although he has lost all four matches against them. There are opponents here who Gaudio would be considered the favorite against in direct matches, but he will have to beat the odds against several elite competitors if he wants to reach the podium here.
Marcin Maciulewicz
Marcin Maciulewicz earned his invite by winning the European Trials a few months ago, but he’s already been a top contender on the European circuit for a while now. He’s a great leglocker with strong positional grappling too, so he should be able to mix up his offence well no matter who he faces. Maciulewicz’s style will present some problems for some of the men in this division and he has the ability to finish them, but he might struggle to win against the competitors with better tactical knowledge or high-level experience.
Michael Pixley
Michael Pixley has excellent wrestling and his style suits the ADCC ruleset very well, as he will likely be able to win decisions if both competitors are unable to score. He won his invite at the West Coast Trials earlier this year and he will be a tough opponent for anyone in the division. It honestly wouldn’t be too surprising to see Pixley upset some of the more established competitors in the under 99kg division at ADCC 2024, but he’s not quite experienced enough at this level to be considered a contender in this preview.
Elioenai Braz
Elioenai Braz came incredibly close to winning an invite at both editions of ADCC Trials in South America. He left with a silver medal at the first edition before returning the following week and standing in the exact same spot on the podium again. Braz was given an invite regardless after such consistent performances back-to-back and he should be a game opponent for anyone in the bracket. There are plenty of difficult opponents for Braz who will take a lot to overcome but there are also some winnable matches that could allow him to build the momentum required to make it to the second day.
Underdogs
Daishi Goto
Daishi Goto has been a pretty active competitor over the last few years and he’s beaten some really skilled grapplers, but he’s largely untested against the highest level of competition. He had a decent run at ADCC Trials earlier in the year but finished fourth in the division, losing out to Kyle Boehm in the bronze medal match. Goto is a solid grappler and he clearly belongs at this level, but it’s going to be tough for him to make a run in such a stacked division.
Daniel Schuardt
Daniel Schuardt is the second Australian grappler competing here and like Moody, he’s been well-known throughout his country for a while now. He won the most recent edition of ADCC Asia and Oceania Trials this year and although he beat some of those two continent’s top grapplers on that run, none of them were at the level of the opposition he will face here. Schuardt is a Lachlan Giles black belt and his technical ability is undeniable, but his execution will need to be flawless to even make it as far as the podium.
Alex Grandy
10th Planet competitor Alex Grandy has received an invite to this division after only narrowly missing out on one at the ADCC East Coast Trials last year. He was submitted by Ardila in the final, but he did beat ADCC veteran Devhonte Johnson along the way there and even beat Zaruski at an ADCC Open just a few months prior. Grandy will be making his ADCC debut here, although he did almost make it in 2022 when he was made an official alternate. Now that he finally has that opportunity he will almost certainly grab it with both hands, but beating some of the favorites in this division will be a monumental task.
Declan Moody
Declan Moody has been one of the top competitors in Australia for a while now but this will be his toughest test at an international level. He’s able to train with some of the top competitors in the world at B-Team Jiu-Jitsu so his training camp will prepare him as best as possible. How far he goes in the bracket is probably going to depend on who he gets drawn against and unfortunately, the odds are pretty high that Moody will be up against one of the favorites in the opening round.
The full ADCC 2024 live event, including the men’s under 99kg division, is available to watch live on August 17th and 18th, 2024 on FloGrappling, click here to subscribe and watch.
