This article is part of our ADCC 2024 coverage. To get live results, play by play, and commentary, we’ll have a live updates article running all weekend.
ADCC 2024 is scheduled for August 17th and 18th, 2024 and we’ve put together a full preview of the men’s over 99kg division. The full competitor list for all 5 men’s divisions and all 3 women’s divisions can be found here, but this article will be breaking down the individual chances of each competitor in this weight class. Every single grappler in the lineup is at the very top of the sport and any one of them could win, although some do have better chances than others on paper. ADCC is the world’s most prestigious no gi grappling tournament, so every competitor will be giving it everything they’ve got for the biggest title in the sport.
Before seeing our full preview of the men’s over 99kg division at ADCC 2024, take a look at the full play-by-play of the last edition here.
ADCC 2024: Men’s Over 99kg Division Full Preview
There are 16 elite competitors in the ADCC 2024 men’s over 99kg division, so this preview will split them into groups of 4 judging by how good their chances are of winning the tournament. The favorites, as the name suggests, are the 4 most likely to win the tournament and will probably end up as the semi-finalists depending on the draw. The contenders are the 4 who are most likely to make it to the quarter-finals and although they aren’t favorites, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them go further. The dark horses and underdogs are the 8 who will most likely go out in the opening round, but the dark horses have the best chance of causing an upset and making a run in the bracket.
Favorites
Felipe Pena
Felipe Pena has been competing at ADCC for almost a decade now, winning a silver medal on his first attempt in 2015. He’s since won another silver medal and the absolute title, beating two of his potential opponents in this division along the way. Pena beaten another one of the top contenders since then as well, making him a clear favorite to take home the title. It’s worth noting that Pena’s had mixed results in the handful of matches he’s had since ADCC 2022 though, and there’s a few men in this division capable of causing an upset.
Luke Griffith
Luke Griffith is still fairly new to the highest level of no gi grappling, at least compared to many of his potential opponents here. That hasn’t slowed him down though, and he actually has a 2-0 record with two submission wins against the very best competitors in this bracket. Griffith has won ADCC Trials on two separate occasions now so it’s clear that a favorable draw should see him make it through the first round pretty comfortably. That’s where it gets tough and although Griffith is a favorite, it won’t be easy for him at all.
Roosevelt Sousa
Roosevelt Sousa did very well in his debut at ADCC 2022, going 2-1 and leaving with a bronze medal in this weight class after Pena decided not to compete in the third-place match. With none of the other men on that podium returning this year, Sousa stands a great chance of improving on his past performance. He is also the reigning IBJJF No Gi World Champion and has a few wins over potential opponents here, but his most recent match against one of them was a submission loss to Griffith at Who’s Number One 21.
Victor Honorio
Victor Honorio has a wealth of experience with over a hundred black belt matches, including wins over some of the best to ever do it like Nicholas Meregali and Leandro Lo. He won the Second ADCC South American Trials earlier this year and although the ADCC Trials winners are not generally considered favorites, Honorio definitely should be. He’s notoriously tough to submit and has great guard passing, so he’s got a style built to win decisions regardless of how talented the opposition is.
Contenders
Josh Saunders
Josh Saunders is one of the most physically-imposing men in the over 99kg division at ADCC 2024 and he’s picked up the technical aspects of BJJ remarkably quickly. He won ADCC Asia and Oceania Trials last year for the second time in a row, and there’s very few people in the sport who can outwork him on a physical level. That should be enough to see him through the first match or two, but after that he will up against some of the most technically proficient men in the world at this weight and they all present tough matchups for him.
Dan Manasoiu
Dan Manasoiu is the biggest competitor in the division and there’s only one man, Saunders, who will come close to matching him on a physical level. He’s also one of Griffith’s teammates at New Wave Jiu-Jitsu and unfortunately for him, that means they will have to meet in the quarter-finals if they win their first matches. That seems like a likely scenario unless one of them is drawn against one of the favorites in the opening round. Given their respective recent track records in high-level matches, Griffith would be the slight favorite in that direct matchup.
Heikki Jussila
Heikki Jussila is another two-time ADCC Trials winner and he was on the receiving end of the unluckiest draw imaginable in 2022 when he faced Gordon Ryan in the first round. That makes it hard to judge how far he could have gone in that bracket but his Trials win for this edition actually came at the expense of one of the other top contenders in this division, Manasoiu. Jussila beat him in the final of the ADCC European Trials last year and that was a clear signal that his wrestling and top-game make him a legitimate threat here.
Michael Perez
Michael Perez will be dramatically undersized in the over 99kg division at ADCC 2024, as he’s competed as low as 73kg in the past. That doesn’t mean he’s an easy opponent though, and he actually won his place here at the ADCC West Coast Trials earlier this year. Not only did he have to beat several top competitors in this weight class along the way, but three of them will actually be competing in this bracket and he’s beaten a fourth of his potential opponents a few years ago. Perez could beat any of the men in this bracket really, but there are a handful with both a physical advantage and greater accomplishments.
Dark Horses
Brandon Reed
Brandon Reed might not be particularly well-known as a competitor in the BJJ world but he’s very popular as an instructor. He’s one of the best wrestling coaches in or around the submission grappling circuit and as a three-time NAIA champion, he’s tested his skills in competition hundreds of times before. He’s only got around 3 years of Jiu-Jitsu under his belt at the moment but Nicky Rodriguez already showed that good wrestlers can have huge success under ADCC rules and Reed might be able to demonstrate that once again here.
Vinny Magalhaes
It’s going to be a memorable weekend for Vinny Magalhaes, and not just because this will be his 8th appearance at the ADCC world championship. Magalhaes will also be getting inducted into the ADCC Hall of Fame shortly before he steps on the mats. He has stood on the podium multiple times, including as a champion in 2011. Although he has won ADCC matches as recently as 2019, Magalhaes is also 40 now and coming off two injuries over the last few years. Age is less of a factor in heavier divisions and Magalhaes could still be a threat, but there’s a lot of young talent in this bracket that will be tough for him to beat.
John Hansen
John Hansen is very experienced under ADCC rules as this will now be his third time at the world’s most prestigious grappling event, coupled with a ton of experience at ADCC Open and Trials events. He’s got a good style that works well under the ruleset and he’s beaten some of his potential opponents already. Hansen could go far with a favorable draw here but if he’s one of the lower seeds then he’ll have an incredibly tough match right from the start.
Haisam Rida
Haisam Rida was one of the most interesting prospects in the sport for a while as an athletic heavyweight who also happened to have great technical ability too. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in his career like his wild armbar finish of Roberto ‘Cyborg’ Abreu back at ADCC 2022. At the same time, he’s also struggled to find a consistent form and currently finds himself without a win in his last 8 matches across almost two years. How far Rida goes will depend on what form he’s in when he steps on the mats, at his worst he will be going out in the opening round but at his best he could definitely make it to the podium.
Underdogs
Vince Pezzuto
Vince Pezzuto is another experienced wrestler in the over 99kg division at ADCC 2024 and the bracket is packed with standing grapplers. Pezzuto’s positional grappling and wrestling is fantastic thanks to that background, and he used that to win a silver medal at ADCC Trials this year. Pezzuto will be a tough opponent for anyone but the problem here is that there are wrestlers who can beat Pezzuto where he is strongest, and BJJ experts who can drag him into his weakest areas too.
Mansur Makhmakhanov
Mansur Makhmakhanov is a proper wildcard in this bracket, as his experience against the highest level of competition is limited. He won the ADCC Asia and Oceania Trials earlier this year and now gets the opportunity to test himself against some of the best grapplers in the world. It’s going to be the biggest test of his career so far and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares, but the odds are definitely going to be against him.
Mark Macqueen
Mark Macqueen has travelled a similar path to Saunders and has picked up the technical aspect of BJJ remarkably quickly after entering the sport with physical talent. Macqueen is a former powerlifter who has gone from competing as a blue belt in local tournaments in the UK two years ago, to winning ADCC European Trials this year. He beat some seriously skilled opponents in that run and he will be tough to beat for everyone, but this event also represents the highest level of competition he’s ever faced.
Damon Ramos
This will be the second time that Damon Ramos has competed at ADCC and the man who beat him in the opening round last time isn’t returning. That bodes well for him and he may well make it further this year, but the likelihood is that he gets seeded pretty lowly and he will probably end up facing one of the favorites in the opening round again. Those aren’t favorable matchups for Ramos and he will probably have to pull off a pretty big upset if he wants to make a run in this bracket.
The full ADCC 2024 live event, including the men’s over 99kg division, is available to watch live on August 17th and 18th, 2024 on FloGrappling, click here to subscribe and watch.
