Polaris 27 is scheduled for March 23rd, 2024 and the event will feature a fantastic welterweight grand prix that we’ve been able to break down in a full preview of the tournament. Although that might be the main attraction for Polaris 27, it certainly isn’t going to be the only match worth watching on the night. Along with a preliminary card filled with rising talent, there will also be a series of three superfights throughout the main card as well. The pair of title-fights will see Ffion Davies and Brianna Ste-Marie meeting in a rematch while Keith Krikorian and Cameron Donnelly will get the opportunity to compete for the vacant featherweight belt. The final non-title superfight of the night will be a clash between two tough UFC veterans, Alex Caceres and Nathaniel Wood.
Polaris 27: Welterweight Grand Prix Full Preview
Luiz Paulo
Luiz Paulo has been a successful gi competitor for a while now, racking up several wins on the AJP Tour circuit over the last few years. Although he’s been entering no gi tournaments for a while, it’s only recently that he’s been able to turn a corner and reach the highest level. He won a silver medal in a tough division at the IBJJF No Gi World Championship last year and has followed that up with the biggest tournament win of his career just a matter of weeks ago. Paulo managed to win gold at the first ADCC South American Trials this year and if he can replicate that same performance at Polaris 27, he could go very far in the bracket.
Prediction: Dark Horse
Max Hanson
Max Hanson is criminally underrated in the professional grappling world. He’s one of the top competitors coming out of Canada in recent years and somehow he gets repeatedly overlooked in tournaments. Hanson is pretty well-rounded and is able to find a way to win in a variety of different situations, so it’s impossible to really count him out of any match. He isn’t the favorite given the high level of competitors he’ll be up against but it’s not hard to imagine Hanson getting the submission win over any of these men, and he’s been known to win stacked brackets in the past.
Prediction: Dark Horse
Harrison Woods
Harrison Woods doesn’t have as much experience competing at a high level as most of his opponents do, but he had to earn his place at Polaris 27 the hard way. Woods won the Contenders tournament that Polaris arranged in order to fill the final spot in the welterweight grand prix, and he had to beat some very tough opposition get here. He put in a dominant performance that day so he’s clearly ready for this opportunity and now that he’s got it, expect him to grab it with both hands. Woods should really push his opponent to the limit no matter who he ends up facing in the opening round and if he can get a win there, he might be able to use that momentum to carry him further.
Prediction: Underdog
PJ Barch
Going by experience alone, PJ Barch should rightfully be considered the sole favorite in this preview of the welterweight grand prix at Polaris 27. The only reason he isn’t alone is because any tournament is unpredictable and there will always be more than one top contender in the lineup. Barch has the most experience and enjoyed the most success at the highest level, including a very impressive win over JT Torres from ADCC 2022. With fantastic wrestling and a solid passing game, Barch should be able to get top position against anyone in the lineup and he has all the tools necessary to beat them from there.
Prediction: Favorite
Davis Asare
Davis Asare is one of the top prospects to come out of New Wave Jiu-Jitsu in recent years and he’s given a great account of himself in several different major tournaments. That first big breakthrough win has been just out of reach so far, but he made a huge impact with his silver medal at the most recent edition of ADCC European, Middle-Eastern, and African Trials. He’s already proven that he has what it takes to beat any one of the men in this lineup on the right day, but it’s going to be tough to put 3 of those upset performances together on one night.
Prediction: Underdog
Jozef Chen
It might seem unusual to class an emerging talent like Jozef Chen as a favorite, but his recent performance at ADCC Trials was nothing short of spectacular. He had one of the most difficult runs of all time and he still put on a series of textbook displays in order to earn an invite to ADCC 2024. This field of opponents will present him with 3 matches that are just as difficult as that run but he’s already demonstrated that he’s capable of delivering results under those conditions. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him emerge with the grand prize once the dust settles on Polaris 27.
Prediction: Favorite
Espen Mathiesen
Espen Mathiesen is known as more of a gi competitor really but happens to be one of the top-ranked Europeans in his weight class. It’s tough to predict how he’s going to perform given that there’s not a lot to go on under this ruleset, and the berimbolo-heavy game that he excels in isn’t generally as effective in no gi. If he can adapt to the different challenges of no gi grappling well then he could definitely go far in this bracket, but it’ll probably require some adjustments to the way he normally competes. This could really go either way for Mathiesen, but it’ll be interesting to see what changes he’s made or if he’s able to get his usual style to work well.
Prediction: Dark Horse
Levi Jones-Leary
Levi Jones-Leary is another gi specialist, although he has more experience in elite no gi competition than Mathiesen does. He hasn’t been able to reach the same level of success that he has in the gi though, and he’s coming into this tournament off a recent loss to Jonnatas Gracie at ADXC 3. Jones-Leary will be a tricky opponent for anyone and he is capable of making it past the opening round, but the odds are stacked against him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him make it into the semi-final or even the final, but it’s hard to imagine him beating the two favorites in this preview of Polaris 27.
Prediction: Underdog
Superfights
Ffion Davies vs Brianna Ste-Marie
Ffion Davies and Brianna Ste-Marie will be meeting in a rematch of the under 60kg final at ADCC 2022 and both women have enjoyed even more success since the last time they crossed paths. Davies won that match by a wide margin on points, racking up 10 points to 0 by the time that the match ended in order to take home the title. She dominated that match from top position almost the entire time and given that she’s only seemed to get better since then, the most likely outcome here is that she repeats that success and moves to 2-0 against Ste-Marie.
Keith Krikorian vs Cameron Donnelly
The second title-fight in this preview of Polaris 27 promises to be just as action-packed as the first. Cameron Donnelly is an ADCC Trials silver medalist and he was very impressive in that tournament, no doubt that was a big part of him getting this opportunity. While he’s a tough match for anyone, Keith Krikorian is a veteran competitor with a ton of experience at the highest levels. Not only has he won ADCC Trials and already been to ADCC too, but he’s actually left with silver medals from Trials three times before that as well. Krikorian has had sustained success and his past performances are proof enough that he should be able to come away with the win here.
Nathaniel Wood vs Alex Caceres
This is an interesting matchup between two top-ranked MMA fighters who could very easily meet in the UFC, given that they inhabit the same weight class. Caceres is a few inches taller so he has a little size advantage, but it’s not going to be something Wood can’t handle. Neither man is a grappling specialist really, but Caceres does have a few more submission wins under his belt than Wood does. It should be a close match and unless one of them gets caught unawares, the most likely outcome is that Caceres gets a narrow decision win.
The full Polaris 27: Welterweight Grand Prix event, including all of the matches in the above preview, is available to watch live on March 23rd, 2024, on UFC Fight Pass.
