This article is part of our ADCC 2024 coverage. To get live results, play by play, and commentary, we’ll have a live updates article running all weekend.
ADCC 2024 is scheduled for August 17th and 18th, 2024 and we’ve put together a full preview of the men’s under 88kg division. The full competitor list for all 5 men’s divisions and all 3 women’s divisions can be found here, but this article will be breaking down the individual chances of each competitor in this weight class. Every single grappler in the lineup is at the very top of the sport and any one of them could win, although some do have better chances than others on paper. ADCC is the world’s most prestigious no gi grappling tournament, so every competitor will be giving it everything they’ve got for the biggest title in the sport.
Before seeing our full preview of the men’s under 88kg division at ADCC 2024, take a look at the full play-by-play of the last edition here.
ADCC 2024: Men’s Under 88kg Division Full Preview
There are 16 elite competitors in the ADCC 2024 men’s under 88kg division, so this preview will split them into groups of 4 judging by how good their chances are of winning the tournament. The favorites, as the name suggests, are the 4 most likely to win the tournament and will probably end up as the semi-finalists depending on the draw. The contenders are the 4 who are most likely to make it to the quarter-finals and although they aren’t favorites, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them go further. The dark horses and underdogs are the 8 who will most likely go out in the opening round, but the dark horses have the best chance of causing an upset and making a run in the bracket.
Favorites
Giancarlo Bodoni
Giancarlo Bodoni is the reigning champion in the under 88kg division and this will be a new feeling for him, as he came into ADCC 2022 as an underdog. After an incredible performance over the weekend, Bodoni went from a relative unknown to being recognised as one of the best grapplers in the world. He’s had some solid performances since then too and has gone 1-1 against other competitors in this bracket, although both those matches were against his fellow favorites. Seeing as Bodoni is unlikely to meet them until the later rounds, he should be standing on the podium again at the very least.
Pedro Marinho
Pedro Marinho is the man that handed Bodoni a loss back at Who’s Number One 17 and although he couldn’t make it past the second round at ADCC 2022, he’s still one of the favorites here. Marinho earned his place here with a great run through the Second ADCC South American Trials earlier this year and he beat another of his potential opponents along the way too. Nobody who’s ever beaten him under ADCC rules is in this bracket, so there’s only a handful of people who could stop Marinho here.
Jacob Couch
Jacob Couch was on fire during the ADCC East Coast Trials last year and he submitted two of the best competitors in this bracket along the way to winning the gold medal there. Couch is a fantastic leglocker and that’s exactly how he was able to win both of those matches, but he also has a fantastic closed guard and solid wrestling too. His recent loss to Jonnatas Gracie at WNO 24 showed that he can be shut down though, so he’ll need to avoid getting stuck in defensive cycles against some of the better passers in this division if he wants to leave with the title.
Elder Cruz
Elder Cruz only narrowly missed out on ADCC Trials gold last year, as he was the man submitted by Couch in the final. He bounced back not long after though and won the IBJJF No Gi World Championship at heavyweight to finish the year off strong. He’s had mixed results since then, including another bronze medal at the ADCC West Coast Trials 2024. Cruz has fantastic positional grappling and although he doesn’t submit many opponents, he uses that along with a solid tactical approach to win clean decisions. On the right day he can beat anyone in this bracket, but he may have trouble with some of the more aggressive competitors who will hunt for the finish non-stop.
Contenders
Taylor Pearman
Taylor Pearman is a newcomer at ADCC but he’s been one of the top competitors on the UK scene for quite some time now. He’s always had fantastic leglocks but he really turned a corner at the ADCC European Trials this year, showing a few new developments in his leg attacks along the way to a gold medal. Many fans won’t be expecting a lot of Pearman; but this has all the signs of a breakthrough performance and we’re betting on him to submit at least one opponent, if not more.
Izaak Michell
Izaak Michell is a two-time ADCC Trials winner and although he’s won those titles in the comparatively shallowed Asia and Oceania brackets, he’s already proven that he belongs among the best in the world. He’s beaten several ADCC veterans over the last few years, including one of the favorites in this division. Michell is a pretty safe bet to make it to the quarter-finals, but beyond that it’s going to require something special if he wants to keep winning.
Jacob Rodriguez
Jacob Rodriguez is undoubtedly one of the most exciting competitors in the sport, but he hasn’t quite been able to translate that to sustained success at the highest level. He’s a former ADCC Trials winner and he’s beaten big names, but his record against men in this bracket is 1-5. All of those losses have come against the favorites though, and Rodriguez does probably have the best wrestling in the bracket. He should be able to beat most of the men here but he would have to abandon his exciting style in favor of a more tactical approach if he wants to beat the very best.
Ryan Aitken
Ryan Aitken is in a decent position in this bracket as he has lost to some of the favorites in the past, but he does also have a recent win over Couch as well. He’s also coming in to this tournament in fantastic form, as he recently won the EBI 21 absolute grand prix despite some seriously tough opposition. Aitken has the rare combination of good leg attacks with great positional grappling, meaning that he’s capable of grinding down more lethal finishers and surprising more well-rounded grapplers too. He has a path to victory against everyone, so it just depends on whether or not he can get it work.
Dark Horses
Santeri Lilius
Santeri Lilius has been a top European competitor for a while and he’s managed to win ADCC Trials on back-to-back attempts now. He had a tough draw back at ADCC 2022 and came up against the returning bronze medalist in the opening round. There’s every chance that Lilius gets a similarly difficult draw this time, but the division is far more open than it usually is. That means that there are more winnable matches for Lilius and so long as he doesn’t come up against one of the favorites, he could improve on his 2022 performance.
Josh Hinger
At 42 years old, Josh Hinger is the oldest competitor in this preview of the under 88kg division at ADCC 2024. He’s the only person other than Bodoni who has already stood on the podium at the event, as he won a bronze medal at this weight back in 2019. Hinger also took out one of the top contenders, his teammate Tye Ruotolo, in the opening round of ADCC 2022. Although it’s hard to imagine him beating four of the men in this bracket in a row, but he is definitely capable of taking out one or two if things go well.
Charles Negromonte
Charles Negromonte is a veteran competitor who actually beat one of the other men in this division on the way to winning the first ADCC South American Trials this year. That’s the only time he’s beaten any of his potential opponents other than a handful of wins over Lilius that date back at least 6 years ago. That was when he was at his peak though, around the time he beat both Andre Galvao and Craig Jones. Negromonte is now 36 and although he definitely still has the ability to win some of these matchups, it’ll be very tough to make it to the podium.
Gabriel Almeida
Gabriel Almeida is the man who lost to Negromonte in the final of the first ADCC South American Trials and he came close again in the second edition, taking another silver medal behind Marinho. Almeida already won ADCC Trials back in 2019 so he’s got a proven track record of success under this ruleset at the lower level. He’s also lost matches to a few of the competitors in this bracket and it’ll be tough for him to make a deep run, but a favorable draw could see him get past the opening round.
Underdogs
Achilles Rocha
Achilles Rocha joined the under 88kg division at ADCC 2024 on incredibly short notice, receiving his invite around two weeks before the event takes place. He was drafted to replace Lucas Kanard leaving for the Craig Jones Invitational, after competing at four different editions of ADCC Trials during the build-up to this. Rocha didn’t reach the podium at any of them, so it’s tough to imagine him making a run against an even higher level of competition. He’s still a talented young prospect regardless and he’s one to watch for the future, so he may well surprise someone in this bracket.
Andre Porfirio
An ADCC debut has been a long time coming for Andre Porfirio, who has had three bronze medals and a fourth place finish in the last four editions of ADCC South American Trials. Porfirio is a great guard-player and he has top-tier leglocks so he will be a dangerous opponent for anyone he faces. He’s even beaten some of the best competitors in the ADCC 2024 under 88kg division like Bodoni and Lilius just a few years ago, so it’s impossible to count Porfirio out even if he isn’t a favorite in this preview.
Chris Wojcik
Chris Wojcik has been hard at work over the last few years and has developed into a pretty well-rounded grappler. He’s a great leglocker and has been for a while now but he’s become a real threat from the top position and since training at B-Team Jiu-Jitsu, he’s also developed some solid wrestling skills too. He’s had some decent runs at ADCC Trials events lately and if Wojcik has been able to make a few adjustments since then, he could beat a fair few of these men in the division.
Felipe Costa
Felipe Costa is a black belt under Xande Ribeiro and he’s had some mixed results at the highest level of competition since being promoted in 2022. He has stood on the podium of the IBJJF No Gi World Championship and the IBJJF No Gi Pan Championship, but it wasn’t until this year that he was able to make it to the top at this level. Costa won the under 99kg at the first ADCC South American Trials and is now dropping down to under 88kg, so that potential size advantage could work in his favor. With a division this tough though, it’ll take a lot more than that to make it very far at all.
The full ADCC 2024 live event, including the men’s under 88kg division, is available to watch live on August 17th and 18th, 2024 on FloGrappling, click here to subscribe and watch.
