The IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023 is scheduled for September 1st, 2023 and here is our full preview of the event. Pretty much every IBJJF Grand Prix has been a fantastic event with a ton of action from start to finish, but the absolute tournament this year is even more interesting than usual. Nicholas Meregali is determined to prove his status as the greatest gi grappler on the planet without ever competing in the IBJJF world championship again, so this tournament is the ideal opportunity for him to do so. Standing opposite him is 7 of the world’s greatest grapplers and each one of them will be equally determined to emerge victorious and take home the $40,000 grand prize.
IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023 Preview
The brackets have already been released for the IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023 and that makes for a much more accurate preview of the tournament now that we know each competitor’s path to glory. Each grappler would have to win three matches on the night and there’s no easy draw available, as all 8 of the entrants are among the best in the planet. That being said, there are obviously tougher matches than others and it’ll be interesting to see if some of the underdogs are able to spring a surprise on the favorites.
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo stands a good chance of winning the IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023 given that he’s the reigning absolute world champion, and he’s definitely one of the favorites in this preview. He’s currently 17-1 in the year so far and he’s had dominant performances in the majority of his matches, submitting 11 of those opponents. His opening round match is Horlando Monteiro and although that’ll be hard, he should make it through to the next round. From there, It’ll take something pretty special for anyone on his side of the bracket to stop him from making it to the final.
Prediction – Favorite
Horlando Monteiro
Horlando Monteiro has been away for competition for quite some time, but he has actually been a black belt for longer than any of the other grapplers in this bracket. He’s a seasoned competitor and has won gold medals in major IBJJF events in the past, but a win here would definitely be his greatest achievement to date. He’s come back with a vengeance this year and has won all 13 matches he’s had, but an opening round meeting with Victor Hugo is undoubtedly his biggest challenge so far. If he can get past Hugo then he may just make it to the final, but he has one of the toughest opponents in the bracket right at the start so it’s unlikely he makes it any further.
Prediction – Underdog
Steffen Banta
Steffen Banta is one of the freshest black belts in the tournament and he was only added to the bracket a few days ago as a late replacement for his coach, Joao Gabriel Rocha. Although he’s had some great performances on the IBJJF Open circuit at black belt, he has yet to prove himself at the highest level of the sport. Facing Fellipe Andrew in his very first appearance at a major tournament at black belt is an incredibly huge challenge and although anything is possible in combat sports, it’s hard to imagine many people passing that test the first time around.
Prediction – Underdog
Fellipe Andrew
Fellipe Andrew has been on an absolute tear recently and he’s enjoyed his best competitive year of his career to date, coming just one match away from completing a grand slam. He had an almost perfect run in the heavyweight division, winning gold medals at the IBJJF European Championship, IBJJF World Championship, and IBJJF Brazilian National Championship while settling for a silver medal in the IBJJF Pan Championship. He should get past the opening round but will likely run into his old foe Victor Hugo in the semi-final, and he hasn’t won any of their 3 matches. Hugo probably wins that match again but if Andrew does get past him then he might actually go all the way and take home the title.
Prediction – Dark Horse
Nicholas Meregali
Nicholas Meregali is definitely one of the best gi grapplers on the planet and many would even choose him as the greatest around right now. The IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023 is actually a fantastic opportunity for him to prove that, even if he is still one of the favorites in this preview. He’s never faced Francisco Lo before and if he does beat him, he gets a chance at revenge against someone who’s beaten him before in Gutemberg Pereira, or another new challenger in Paulo Merlin. His two most likely opponents in the final would be Victor Hugo or Fellipe Andrew, both of whom he’s beaten multiple times before. There’s lots of interesting or fresh matchups for Meregali throughout the bracket, but it’s hard to pick against him regardless.
Prediction – Favorite
Francisco Lo
Francisco Lo has one of the most difficult first-round matchups he could possibly get, but he’s always a game opponent with plenty of tricks up his sleeve. While Lo is known for his flying submissions, he’s also well-rounded enough to be able to present a challenge anywhere. Unfortunately Lo is also one of the smallest competitors in the bracket though and that combined with his opening round draw makes it incredibly hard for him to progress any further.
Prediction – Underdog
Gutemberg Pereira
Gutemberg Pereira has over a hundred matches against elite competition and has proven time and time again that he’s capable of defeating all of them. In fact, he actually has winning records against half of his potential opponents in this preview of the IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023. He should make it past Paulo Merlin in the opening round but his most likely opponent in the semi-final is Nicholas Meregali. That’s a huge challenge for anyone but Pereira has beaten him once before, and may very well do so again. If he can do that, then he might just be able to do anything.
Prediction – Dark Horse
Paulo Merlin
Just like Steffen Banta, Paulo Merlin also stepped in as a late replacement after Kaynan Duarte withdrew from the event. Also like Banta, Merlin is a relatively fresh black belt and has not even been competing at this level for a whole year yet. Despite his inexperience compared to his opponents, Merlin has already claimed some big victories since competing at black belt. He took home a bronze medal from the absolute division of the IBJJF world championship earlier this year and beat Lucas ‘Hulk’ Barbosa along the way. Every single match is going to be difficult for him but Merlin is right on the edge of big things and some improvements in a short space of time might be enough to see him to victory here.
Prediction – Dark Horse
Superfights
There are also a series of 5 superfights arranged for the IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023 that feature some of the best grapplers on the planet, and we’ve included them in this preview too. The superfights will serve as a way to break up the action in the tournament and give the competitors a rest between each round of the bracket. As a result, the first 2 superfights take place between the quarter-final and semi-final, while the other 3 take place between the semi-final and final match. Here we’ll break down each of the superfights and pick the most likely winner of each match.
Johnatha Alves v Jackson Nagai
Johnatha Alves and Jackson Nagai have met once before, but it was in one of the closest matches of the IBJJF world championship earlier this year. Alves has the edge in experience as he’s had more than twice as many matches at black belt than Nagai and has won several major IBJJF events over the years. If this match is just as close as their last meeting then it really could go either way, but Alves has enough of an experience advantage that he should be able to squeeze out the victory.
Prediction: Johnatha Alves
Janaina Lebre v Emily Fernandez
Janaina Lebre was actually the first woman that Emily Fernandez faced after being promoted to black belt, and the pair actually met at Jiu-Jitsu Con last year. Lebre won that match in a pretty convincing fashion, 8-2 on points. Since then Lebre has won an IBJJF Grand Prix and earned a silver medal from the IBJJF world championship, while Fernandez has had good performances on the IBJJF Open circuit but not been able to reach the podium of major events. There’s not much to suggest that the gap between the two women has closed and it’s likely that the outcome is the same as the first time around.
Prediction: Janaina Lebre
Ronaldo Junior v Sebastian Rodriguez
Ronaldo Junior is a veteran of IBJJF Grand Prix events but Sebastian Rodriguez is a rising star who appears to have hit his stride over the last year or so. The only issue is that the majority of Rodriguez’s biggest successes have actually come in no gi competition, while Junior is one of the best around at playing to the ruleset. Junior is notoriously difficult to submit as well and although Rodriguez definitely has what it takes to win, it’s going to be an uphill battle.
Prediction: Ronaldo Junior
Cole Abate v Eduardo Granzotto
This is a great matchup between two of the top fresh black belts and it’ll be interesting to see what the next generation has to offer now they’ve reached the highest level. Eduardo Granzotto has done very well on his journey through the colored belt ranks and he would be the favorite in a lot of other matches, but not against Cole Abate. Abate has been one of the top prospects in the sport for quite some time, and deservedly so. He’s already an ADCC veteran despite still being a teenager and this should be a chance for Abate to prove that he’s the best of his generation.
Prediction: Cole Abate
Tainan Dalpra v Yan Paiva
Tainan Dalpra has been virtually unbeatable since he was promoted to black belt and just like Abate, he was one of the top prospects in the sport for years before that. He’s only lost two matches since 2021 and they were to Mica Galvao and Jansen Gomes. While Yan Paiva is a great grappler with a ton of competitive experience, it’s very unlikely that he’s able to stop Dalpra from building up another winning streak. Dalpra should be able to display his incredible grappling skill on the way to a convincing victory.
Prediction: Tainan Dalpra
The full IBJJF Absolute Grand Prix 2023, including all of the matches included in this preview, is available to watch live on FloGrappling on September 1st, 2023.
