UFC Vegas 7: Munhoz v Edgar has some interesting matchups from a grappling standpoint, and we at JitsMagazine are here to preview the ground work – just as we detailed potential grappling for UFC 252 last week. Which fights will have the most in terms of takedowns, guard passing, and submissions?
This week’s card features a number of fights with some ground potential. I’ve rated each fight with it’s own “Groundwatch Rating” to help the discerning grappler prepare for Saturday.
Timur Valiev vs. Trevin Jones – Catch Weight (140)
Groundwatch Rating: 3/5
Valiev is the latest Dagestani to enter the UFC, and appears to have a good pedigree, as he is training out of Jackson-Wink. We all know what Dagestan means in the UFC: high level wrestling.
Trevin Jones is certainly an interesting prospect, with 4 of his 12 pro wins coming from submission. Fighting out of Guam, he is a last minute replacement for Mark Striegl – and that ups the grappling quotient for this fight.
I’m giving this a solid 3 out of 5, as there is sure to be some groundwork – it’s just a bit unclear if it will stay in the wrestling realm with new prospects.
Carlton Minus vs. Matt Semelsberger – Welterweight
Groundwatch Rating: 1/5
Both are making their UFC debut, and it appears both have made their way up through the ranks mainly through striking. In terms of grappling, the only interesting thing to note here is that “Semi” Semelsberger did win one of his amateur fights via heel hook. Still, it only merits a 1/5 for me.
Jordan Wright vs. Ike Villanueva – Light Heavyweight
Groundwatch Rating: 3/5
Another Jackson-Wink product, Jordan Wright has a well-rounded background, with half of his 10 wins coming from submission. “Hurricane” Ike Villanueva is a MMA veteran, and all of his victories have come via strikes. He can be susceptible to a submission loss, with 5 out of 10 career losses coming from submission. I am leaving at 3/5, simply because Wright may be good enough on his feet to win that way.
Joe Solecki vs Austin Hubbard – Lightweight
Groundwatch Rating: 4/5
*** Featured Groundwatch Matchup ***
Joe Solecki, a BJJ black belt, trains primarily out of Myrtle Beach, SC. He’s been competing in various grappling events for years, and his jiu jitsu has been good enough to win many of these contests.
Solecki often does his work on the ground. Six of his nine pro wins have come via submission. He’s used varied submissions as well – finishing with RNCs, but also guillotines, and triangle chokes. Solecki even had an arm triangle submission victory in one of his amateur bouts.
Though he only has one UFC fight, he managed 4 successful takedowns against Matt Wiman, with 6 passes.
His opponent, Austin Hubbard, will likely be looking to keep the fight standing. In his two victories (one via decision and one via TKO), he has out-struck his opponents by a near 2:1 margin. His two defeats saw him being taken down a combined 11 times. With a takedown defense of 50%, he will likely need to increase his rate to ensure the win.
I’m highlighting this fight, because it looks like Solecki will need to take the fight to the ground in order to win.
Mizuki Inoue vs. Amanda Lemos – Strawweight
Groundwatch Rating: 2/5
Inoue is very interesting from a grappling standpoint. Though her background is karate, she has a knack for finishing fights on the mat. A surprising 7 of her 14 pro wins have come via arm bar submission. As the quality of opponent has gone up, she has won her more recent fights standing. Lemos has ground skills as well – winning her last UFC fight via RNC – but seemingly prefers to keep it standing. I’m keeping this at a 2/5 because of their recent trends.
UFC Vegas 7 Main Card
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Dwight Grant – Welterweight
Groundwatch Rating: 1/5
This fight was just put together today due to a few last minute drop outs. Though Daniel Rodriguez represents 10th Planet, and he managed to guillotine Tim Means in his first UFC fight, he has primarily been a striker throughout his career. Grant is a kickboxer with good striking power, and will be looking to avoid any ground entanglements. It’s too bad that Calen Born had to pull out of his bout with Grant – he’s a pure grappler and I was interested to see him fight. As for these two – I don’t see much grappling occurring here, but with perhaps a slight chance Rodriguez pulls something out, I’ll say 1/5 overall.
Welcome to the UFC Daniel Rodriguez! #UFCRioRancho pic.twitter.com/wuQhy86Cns
— UFC (@ufc) February 16, 2020
Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson – Flyweight
Groundwatch Rating: 1/5
Agapova has some submissions wins in her fight history, and Dobson is a Team Lloyd Irvin member. On the surface, one would think this might have a chance for some grappling. This matchup is interesting in a potential showcase for Agapova and a do-or-die scenario for Dobson, but neither has shown much interest in grappling during their UFC stints. 1/5.
Mike Rodriguez vs. Marcin Prachnio – Light Heavyweight
Groundwatch Rating: 0/5
Mike Rodriguez is a primary striker despite a few submission wins. Prachnio is even more of a striker. “Slo Mike” has a huge reach advantage and I expect he’ll look to use that standing. Neither fighter has even landed one takedown in their UFC fights. 0/5.
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield – Light Heavyweight
Groundwatch Rating: 3/5
*** Featured Groundwatch Matchup ***
Ovince Saint Preux has definitely had some great grappling moments over the years, with 7 UFC wins via submission. He’s used varied submissions over the years, but he’s perhaps best known for his Von Flue chokes. “OSP” has hit his “Von Preux” Choke on three separate occasions in the UFC, most recently last September against Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Menifield is a pure up-and-coming Muay Thai based striker and this fight is set up as a bit of a showcase. OSP is likely in a bit of a decline – he’s 37 years old now. Menifield will want no business on the ground, so the results of this fight will likely depend on that. Can OSP get Menifield on the mat? I think this is a 3/5 because I’m not sure he can consistently do it – Menifield boasts an 85% takedown defense rate.
He did it … AGAIN!@003_OSP hits the VON PREUX choke and submits Oleksiejczuk! pic.twitter.com/D8M2KWYpeD
— UFC (@ufc) September 28, 2019
UFC Vegas 7 Main Event
Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar – Bantamweight
Groundwatch Rating: 1/5
Both of these guys are pretty well rounded, but overall they tend to be strikers. If either of the two would want to force ground action, it’s likely Edgar, who has gone away from his heavy takedown style used earlier in his career. This is another fight that will probably remain on the feet – 1/5.
Through our grappling lens, UFC Vegas 7: Munhoz vs. Edgar looks like a mixed bag. But it’s free on ESPN and there appears to be a few very intriguing fights.
Overall Card Groundwatch rating: 3/5.
